The first major electoral test for Victoria’s new Liberal leader is under way as voters rush to the polls - a tight race that could determine the future for One Nation.
The polls have closed as residents in Victoria’s south cast their votes in the Nepean by-election, offering an early test for Liberal leader Jess Wilson before the general election in November – but the threat isn’t coming from the Allan government.
Jess Wilson and Nepean candidate Anthony Marsh met with locals in the Rosebud Sea Scout on Saturday, in hopes to steer the residents away from a vote towards One Nation.
The Nepean by-election is a chance for One Nation to test its popularity in Victoria following their success in the South Australian election in March.
Labor won’t be running a candidate in the Mornington Peninsula seat that has been held by the Liberal Party since 2018.
The by-election was triggered by the sudden resignation of former Liberal deputy leader and tennis star Sam Groth.
He quit parliament in February amid internal party division, sending the electorate for a costly by-election just seven months before the state election.
Speaking to the Herald Sun, Ms Wilson said voters felt neglected under Labor.
“The people in the peninsula, the people of Nepean deserve their fair share and that’s my commitment to them as their next Premier is to make sure at they get the investment they deserve so their families and they can run their businesses down here,” she said.
“People are really frustrated with the lack of investment down here on the peninsula for decades ... I mean I think it speaks volumes that the Labor Party are not even running a candidate in this election.”
In the absence of Labor contesting the seat, the two main contenders are the Liberal Party and One Nation, according to new polling data from Roy Morgan.
The Liberal Party won the seat of Nepean with 50.54 per cent of the vote at the 2022 election, followed by 34.14 per cent to Labor and 10.88 per cent to the Greens.
Special analysis of voting patterns in the Eastern Victorian Region, where the seat of Nepean sits, show One Nation leading in primary support on 36 per cent ahead of the Liberal/National coalition on 28 per cent.
The coalition narrowly leads on a two-party preferred basis on 50.5 per cent with One Nation on 49.5 per cent.
The Liberal Party’s Anthony Marsh is a Peninsula local who served two terms as Mornington Peninsula Shire Mayor.
Prior to that, he was an Air Force officer and business owner for more than a decade. His main electoral focuses are community development and local infrastructure.
One Nation’s Darren Hercus runs a fabrication business in Safety Beach which he said has seen a 40 per cent drop in business and land taxes soar.
His election focuses are fighting for small businesses, local jobs, and fair treatment for Australians who feel ignored by the major parties.
If he wins, he would join One Nation’s only other representative in the Victorian parliament Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell who sits in the Upper House.
One Nation founder, Senator Pauline Hanson, says One Nation would “go after” Victoria in the November state election after picking up four seats in South Australia.
“I keep saying all the time, Victoria is a basket case. And a lot of our new membership is coming out of Victoria,” Senator Hanson said at the time.
“People actually want representation in Victoria from One Nation.
“They’re screaming out for it. They’re crying out for it.”
A Sky News poll in April showed One Nation was sitting as the most popular party in Victoria and would have secured 26 per cent of the primary vote in a federal election if it had been held then.
Six other candidates will contest the seat, including Sianan Healy for the Greens, along with other minor parties and independents.
Ms Wilson has been hitting the pavement and posting videos to social media from the district, campaigning for Mr Marsh.
One of their campaign stunts involved Ms Wilson and Mr Marsh taking roadworks into their own hands and resulted in Mr Marsh being investigated by Victoria’s transport department for unauthorised roadworks.
Taking to social media on Wednesday, Ms Wilson asked “help” to make a change on the Mornington Peninsula.
“A vote for Anthony Marsh and my Liberal team means a rebuilt Rosebud Hospital that remain in public hands, better locals [sic] roads and more police on the beat to keep communities safe,” she wrote.
Some commentators have said Premier Jacinta Allen is “running scared” ahead of the by-election.
“Sadly, Labor is so frightened about being judged in a poll before the state election they are not even standing a candidate,” Steve Price wrote in the Herald Sun.
The by-election is being held just days before the Labor government hands down its pre-election budget on Tuesday.
Polling by Roy Morgan shows that overall Victorians are split four ways ahead of the November election.
Labour, with 25.5 per cent, sit just ahead of One Nation on 24.5 per cent.
The Liberal-National Coalition comes in third with 24 per cent, while 26 per cent support other parties – including 13.5 per cent for the Greens and 8.5 per cent supporting Independents.
If a state election were to be held now, it is likely we would have a hung parliament with second and third preference decisions of voters being more important than ever in determining this year’s election results, according to Roy Morgan.
A Victorian Electoral Commission spokesperson said they “do not have a figure for the Nepean District by-election yet”.
“The final cost will be provided in our report to parliament after the election is completed,” they said.
The recent Prahran and Werribee District by-elections that took place in 2025 cost approximately $4,219,000 combined and the Mulgrave District by-election in 2023 cost $680,485.
Main voting opens at 8am on Saturday May 2 and closes at 6pm.
As of 10am on Friday, 4,910 postal votes had been returned and a total of 17,691 voters had voted early for the Nepean District by-election.
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